The following chart depicts this election cycle, i.e., the average four-year pattern of the Dow Jones Industrial Average over more than a century. On the left hand side you see the pattern during the election year, followed by the first post-election year. Thereafter comes the mid-term pattern – which is highlighted by a red circle – and lastly the pre-election year pattern.

In the past 116 years the DJIA delivered the strongest performance during election and pre-election years on average. Post-election years typically also managed to generate gains. The mid-terms were typically the weakest time period.

Given that prices on average barely rise in mid-term years, there is obviously a heightened probability of declines. Thus there is a threat of a sizable fall in stock prices in 2018.