Focusing just on the US, here is Goldman noting that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM services index on Tuesday and the employment report on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week.
Monday, October 4
- 10:00 AM Factory orders, August (GS +0.9%, consensus +1.0%, last +0.4%); Durable goods orders, August final (consensus +1.8%, last +1.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, August final (last +0.2%); Core capital goods orders, August final (last +0.5%); Core capital goods shipments, August final (last +0.7%): We estimate that factory orders increased 0.9% in August following a 0.4% increase in July. Durable goods orders rose 1.8% in the August advance report and core capital goods orders increased 0.7%.
- 10:00 AM St. Louis Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will take part in a virtual panel discussion on “Mastering the Economic Recovery.”
Tuesday, October 5
- 08:30 AM Trade Balance, August (GS -$71.1bn, consensus -$70.6bn, last -$70.1bn); We estimate that the trade deficit increased by $1.0bn to $71.1bn in August, reflecting a larger increase in imports than exports in the advance goods report.
- 09:45 AM Markit services PMI, September final (consensus 54.4, last 54.4)
- 10:00 AM ISM services index, September (GS 59.2, consensus 59.9, last 61.7): We estimate that the ISM services index declined 2.5pt points to 59.2, reflecting a drag from the Delta variant on virus-sensitive services and the elevated level of the ISM measure relative to other service-sector surveys. Our services tracker fell 2.7pt to 55.5.
- 01:15 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Quarles (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles discusses the Libor transition at a conference hosted by the Structured Finance Association in Las Vegas. Prepared text and moderated Q&A are expected.
Wednesday, October 6
- 08:15 AM ADP employment report, September (GS +375k, consensus +430k, last +374k); We expect a 375k rise in ADP payroll employment for the month of September, similar to the 374k gain in August. Our forecast assumes firm underlying job gains but incorporates a drag from the August nonfarm payroll data, which is one of the inputs to the ADP model.
Thursday, October 7
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 2 (GS 333k, consensus 350k, last 362k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended September 25 (consensus 2,770k, last 2,802k); We estimate initial jobless claims decreased to 333k in the week ended October 2.
- 11:45 AM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester takes part in a virtual panel discussion on inflation dynamics hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the European Central Bank. Audience Q&A is expected.
Friday, October 8
- 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, September (GS +600k, consensus +470k, last +235k); Private payroll employment, September (GS +500k, consensus +450k, last +243k); Average hourly earnings (mom), September (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.6%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), September (GS +4.6%, consensus +4.6%, last +4.3%); Unemployment rate, September (GS 5.1%, consensus 5.1%, last 5.2%): We estimate nonfarm payroll growth picked up to +600k in September following the disappointing 235k gain in August (mom sa). Remaining federal enhanced unemployment benefits expired on September 5, and we believe the associated easing in labor supply constraints began to boost job growth in September. But because the survey week ended only two weeks later (September 18), we continue to expect a larger impact in the October report. We also expect the reopening of schools to contribute roughly 150k to September job growth. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment measures were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally after falling in August due to the Delta variant. We estimate a one-tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1%, reflecting a strong household employment gain but a 0.1-0.2pp rise in the labor force participation rate, the latter driven by expiring benefits and the easing of childcare constraints. We estimate a 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings (mom sa, and +4.6% yoy), reflecting continued wage pressures partially offset by negative calendar effects.
- 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, August final (consensus +1.2%, last +1.2%)
Source: DB, Goldman, BofA